Abstract: The refined operation of thermal power enterprises aims at cost reduction, efficiency and competitiveness. The linkage of enterprise production and operation indexes is established through the operation model. With the calculation of marginal contribution, we carry out the refinement calculation on the sensitive parameters affecting the cost, such as the coal consumption of power supply (Mgd) and the standard coal unit price of incoming coal (Crcb), to derive the enterprise's operation status. The coal prediction model based on linear regression and LSTM is used to carry out the above refinement calculations, and finally, the proposed method is used to give a reasonable coal procurement strategy by taking 32 data of historical continuous monthly coal procurement prices of a thermal power plant in Hubei Province as an example, which achieves the maximization of the enterprise's operating income.