装配式建筑施工绩效不确定性的形成机理研究

Formation Mechanism of Construction Performance Uncertainty in Prefabricated Buildings

  • 摘要: 装配式建筑在施工过程中易受到多源、多重因素的影响,且这些因素之间存在复杂的相互关系,导致施工成本、质量和工期等三大绩效具有较高的不确定性,从而限制了其发展。为解决降低装配式建筑多维施工绩效不确定性的难题,亟需深入研究其不确定性形成的机理。基于相关文献中提取的影响因素,采用Ucinet社会网络分析工具构建社会网络分析模型,揭示装配式建筑多维施工绩效的网络结构具有复杂性,节点受网络约束力较低且表现出较强的自主行为能力。此外,利用Vensim系统动力学工具建立系统动力学模型,并结合某项目案例进行仿真分析。结果显示,影响多维施工绩效的关键敏感性因素是“管理人员的管理水平”与“人员管理制度的完善性”。研究提出的方法及其发现,为制定降低装配式建筑多维施工绩效不确定性的对策提供了理论依据。

     

    Abstract: Prefabricated buildings are susceptible to multiple interrelated factors with complex interactions during construction, leading to significant uncertainties in key performance indicators (KPIs) such as cost, quality, and schedule. These uncertainties hinder the widespread adoption of prefabricated construction. To address this challenge, this study investigates the formation mechanism of multi-dimensional construction performance uncertainties. Based on critical influencing factors identified through literature analysis, a social network analysis (SNA) model was developed using UCINET to characterize the complexity of the performance uncertainty network. The results reveal a decentralized network structure with low nodal constraint forces, indicating strong autonomous behavioral tendencies among influencing factors. Furthermore, a system dynamics (SD) model was constructed via Vensim and validated through a case study project. Simulation results identify “management competency of personnel” and “effectiveness of personnel management systems” as the most sensitive factors affecting multi-dimensional performance outcomes. The proposed hybrid methodology and findings provide theoretical foundations for formulating targeted strategies to mitigate performance uncertainties in prefabricated building construction.

     

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